TS Debby and TD 5

Debby is still a tropical storm out in the mid-Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb.

But the system to watch is tropical depression 5, which formed in the Caribbean today. The satellite image shows a healthy amount of convection, though the center of circulation is not yet obvious. When this system becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Ernesto. The five day forecast has it hitting Jamaica late Sunday. The current wind shear is a little high, but it's moving into an area of lower shear and the sea surface temperature is well above the minimum temperature necessary for tropical system formation, which is 26.5 degrees C (80 degrees F). Interests in the Caribbean and the Gulf should keep an eye on this system for now.

Tropical Storm Debby

Tropical Storm Debby has formed just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Debby is not expected to be much of a threat to land, and should recurve to the north, then to the east in the mid-Atlantic some time next week.

Saomai Weakens Slightly, but Still Powerful

Saomai is now a category 4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. China has evacuated 1.1 million people in preparation for Saomai's arrival. Landfall is expected at 5pm local time.

NOAA Adjusts Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA has trimmed its forecast for the season, but warns that they still expect above average activity this year, despite the slow start. An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. NOAA's current predictions call for 12 to 15 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 or 4 major hurricanes. So far, there have only been 3 tropical storms and no hurricanes, but the peak of the hurricane season is just starting (most tropical systems form from August to October). As I mentioned in my previous post, there are some systems moving out of Africa that bear watching. The strongest hurricanes tend to originate off the coast of Africa because they have plenty of time to gather strength as they cross the ocean. Wind shear is a little high in the mid-Atlantic at the moment, but it looks like that may change in a couple of days.

Super Typhoon Saomai

The Atlantic is quiet for now, though there is a series of waves coming off of Africa that will bear watching over the next couple of the weeks. The Pacific, however, is active. Saomai is now a category 5 super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The current forecast brings it north of Taiwan on Thursday morning, with landfall in China as at least a category 1 storm by Thursday evening.

Tropical Storm Chris - Update 5

The National Hurricane Center still hasn't downgraded Chris to a tropical depression. The satellite picture looks particularly unhealthy, but the official position is that Chris has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Chris will mainly be a rain event for the Carribbean. The current forecast has it being a tropical storm in the Gulf and eventually making landfall in southern Texas or northern Mexico.

Topical Storm Chris - Update 4

Chris weakened considerably last night and is now barely a tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph and the minimum central pressure 1012 mb. The five day forecast no longer predicts that Chris will become a hurricane, but predicts that it will remain a tropical storm. The offical forecast track has it passing over Cuba on Sunday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Monday where the sea surface temperature is high but so is wind shear. Gulf Coast residents should still keep an eye on this one, but for now, Chris is a minimal threat.

Tropical Storm Chris - Update 3

As of 8 pm, Chris has weakened slightly to maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. However, it is still forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. The Bahamas has issued a hurricane watch, which means hurricane conditions are possible there within the next 36 hours. The computer models are bit more scattered than they were earlier, with paths projected anywhere from hitting Hispaniola and passing south of Cuba to hitting the Bahamas and heading toward Florida. The Bermuda high that is responsible for the recent heat wave is currently preventing Chris from turning north. Once the heat pulls out, Chris could start to turn north. It's just a question of when this will happen.

Tropical Storm Chris - Morning 2

Chris inches closer to hurricane status this morning with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb. Chris is now forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday and pass between Florida and Cuba Sunday night. Warm water and low shear are creating favorable conditions for development, so Chris may even become a hurricane by this afternoon. The current forecast track takes this system over very little land and into the Gulf, which gives it another important element that hurricanes need to form: time. The more time over water and the less time over land, the more potential for a strong hurricane. So Florida and the Gulf Coast need to watch this one closely.

Tropical Storm Chris

The third tropical storm of the season, Chris, formed early this morning just east of the Leeward Islands. As of 8pm, the winds are at 60 mph and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The high wind shear Chris was experiencing when it formed has now diminished, which increases the chances that it will instensify. Chris is currently forecast to become a hurricane by Friday afternoon and pass north of Cuba over the weekend.